US-Chinese tensions over Taiwan will come to a head but won’t boil over, say observers

  • Beijing warns US against stirring up ‘bigger crisis’ as Washington vows ‘further steps’ after live-fire PLA drills encircle Taiwan
  • Despite tough rhetoric, actual conflict is not the aim for either side and there is room for a reset, say analysts in Beijing and Malaysia

Tensions triggered by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit will continue to mount, but military conflict over the issue is unlikely, most regional observers believe.

This comes as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned Washington not to “stir up a bigger crisis”, after the US announced it would take “further steps” by sending aircraft and warships to the waters near Taiwan in the coming weeks.

Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said the strain in international relations is a natural result of strategic interactions, and the two nations are not close to engaging in combat.

“Confrontation will [escalate] but a conflict is still unlikely, even as the suspension of military communication has surely made prevention of incidental clashes more difficult,” Shi said. Beijing has suspended a range of defence and military exchanges with the US, as part of a slew of countermeasures in response to Pelosi’s “provocative” visit.

On Thursday, just as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) began four days of intensive live-fire drills around Taiwan, the Pentagon said its Japan-based aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan would be extending its scheduled deployment in the Western Pacific.

“We will conduct standard air and maritime transits through the Taiwan Strait in the next few weeks, consistent, again, with our long-standing approach to defending the freedom of the seas and international law,” national security spokesman John Kirby said.

“And, we will take further steps to demonstrate our commitment to the security of our allies in the region.”

The US 7th Fleet’s movement in the strait, while lawful, is a highly sensitive operation against the backdrop of Taiwan tensions.

Beijing has slammed the US moves. “The usual tactic of the US is that they first create the problems, and then use them to achieve their goal. But this approach will not work on China,” Wang told reporters on the sidelines of an Asean foreign ministers’ meeting in Cambodia.

However, despite the tough rhetoric, the two superpowers are not looking to be in a military conflict at this stage, according to Koh King Kee, president of the Centre for New Inclusive Asia, a think tank in Malaysia.

“Strategically, this is not the right time for the US to pick a fight with China as it is still mired in the Ukraine war, neither is Beijing in a rush for a military conflict with the US now – but certainly not at the cost of compromising its national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

The signs indicate that Washington will avoid further tensions with Beijing, Koh said, including refraining from transiting during the PLA drills, as well as the postponement of a long-planned test of an Air Force Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile.

In the meantime, Beijing will “normalise” military drills around Taiwan, as maintaining pressure on the island gives it more control and flexibility.

“For now, Beijing will keep ‘normalising’ its military drills encircling the island, as it can turn such military exercises into real action anytime it deems necessary,” Koh said.

“History will show that the date of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will be the beginning of a countdown to Beijing’s timetable for the reunification of Taiwan.”

Despite the difficulties created by Pelosi’s trip, Beijing has left a lot of room for relations with Washington to improve, according to Lu Xiang, an expert on US-China relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

“Beijing did not use forceful measures to intercept Pelosi’s flight … [the message is] we are not targeting any country, we are protecting our national security,” Lu explained, adding that Pelosi’s actions will not automatically turn the two countries into military adversaries.

“The status quo of the Taiwan Strait was completely disrupted by Pelosi’s visit … [but] Beijing will not be reckless, it has been practising propriety in everything,” Lu said. The two superpowers could still maintain a relationship if Washington stopped interfering in the prospect of cross-strait reunification, he added.

The PLA will not, at this point, enter the island or attack its military points, Lu asserted, as the objective of the drills is to “clearly display [Beijing’s] stance, ability and determination”

The drills also reflected greater command of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, he said.

“If unexpected scenarios arise, Beijing will have an instant reaction … There will no longer be so many verbal warnings or repeated protesting, while actions will be more defined.”

Andy Mok, senior research fellow at the Centre for China and Globalisation, a non-government think tank in Beijing, however believes “a self-destructive doom loop triggered by a dysfunctional American political system may make a violent collision with China inevitable”.

Mok drew parallels between Pelosi’s visit and the July Crisis in the summer of 1914 – a series of diplomatic and military escalations among European powers that led to World War I.

But he held out a solution. “A military conflict can still be avoided if the United States recognises the risks it faces from its overstretched and fragile military, as well as its economic vulnerabilities ranging from rare earth metals to semiconductors,” Mok said.

Author: Cyril Ip, SCMP

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