China GDP Forecast Cut at UBS, Barclays and Standard Chartered

UBS Group AG, Barclays Plc and Standard Chartered Plc have cut their forecasts for China’s full-year economic growth as the country sticks to tough anti-Covid curbs and lockdowns to control a worsening virus outbreak.

UBS downgraded its gross domestic product growth forecast to 4.2% from 5% “in light of the intensified downward pressure on the economy,” economists led by Tao Wang said in a report to clients Monday. The same day, Barclays economists cut their assessment by 20 basis points to 4.3% “in expectation that Covid disruptions will be prolonged.”

Standard Chartered too lowered its full-year GDP projection to 5% from 5.3% in a report Monday that cited the “growing toll” from lockdowns.

The UBS economists said they expect more policy support, “mainly in the form of more infrastructure investment, stronger credit growth, and easier property policy.” But they added they don’t see the government doing “whatever it takes” to achieve a growth target of about 5.5% this year, “nor shift the Covid policy soon.”

DBS Group Holdings Ltd. recently cut its forecast for China’s economic growth by 50 basis points to 4.8% as Covid lockdowns dampen consumption and put supply chains under further strain.

Author: Jill Elaine Disis, Bloomberg

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