Analysts’ 2022 outlook for Chinese assets

Investment houses have begun publishing their predictions for Chinese asset prices next year, and after a bruising 12 months in financial markets even bulls have a tempered outlook.

The Hang Seng equity index has fallen about 13% this year and the MSCI China index has lost about 20% against a 12% rise in world stocks.

On Dec. 2, the Hang Seng was at 23,714, MSCI China at 86.733 and the blue-chip CSI300 index (.CSI300) at 4,854.6.

Here is a summary of some forecasts for Chinese assets at the end of 2022:

INVESTMENT HOUSE
HANG SENG TARGET
MSCI CHINA TARGET
CSI300 TARGET
USD/CNY
Goldman Sachs
105
5,500
6.2 (12-month f’cast)
Morgan Stanley
25,000
95
5,250
6.4
Barclays
6.5
HSBC
28,030
Standard Chartered
6.5

Key comments:

GOLDMAN SACHS

“We believe Chinese stocks will have a better year in 2022 as the market recovers from a major correction and transitions into a ‘hope’ phase, where P/E expansion typically trumps weak fundamental growth and drives strong equity gains.”

MORGAN STANLEY

“MSCI China has had its worst ever relative performance drawdown vs. broad emerging markets in 2021…despite such a record underperforming year, we still see some lingering risks skewed towards higher volatility or more downside in the near term. This makes us believe that now is not yet the right time to go bullish at a broad index level.”

HSBC

“We think markets have been overzealous in selling Chinese stock… most funds are underweight and as the focus returns to growth in China, we think this market will roar back.”

Credit Suisse

“Amid the expected relatively friendly policy environment and reasonable liquidity, we remain constructive on China A-share markets, despite the possible negative impact from the expected Fed’s tightening cycle. The Hong Kong stock market is likely to have a bigger impact from overseas macro and market volatilities, while we expect sector rotation could tilt back towards growth.”

Authors: Tom Westbrook, Winni Zhou, Reuters

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