Putting the Reflation Rally in Context
How big was the rally over the past year? Copper is up more than 50 percent.
How big was the rally over the past ~2 years? Look at the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread.
Here’s a longer look for context:
Using this as a proxy for social mood, we can see the market is about as optimistic now as it was in June 2014. The trend is different though. Back in 2014, economic forecasts were being cut in the U.S. This year their down slightly, but global forecasts are being raised.
At the start of the year, economists were optimistic. Perhaps the economy would grow 3% this year, they said, instead of the measly 2% pace it’s been stuck at for the prior three years.
So much for that hopeful thinking. Half-way through the year, forecasts are being slashed.
The International Monetary Fund raised its estimate for global economic growth in 2017 and next year, citing stronger expansion in the first half of the year in the eurozone, Japan and some emerging markets.
…In July, the IMF lowered its forecast for U.S. growth to 2.1% for 2017 and 2018 from earlier projections of 2.3% and 2.5%.
The magnitude of the moves are larger during this phase of hope and its fair to say optimism has increased to a new post-2008 high. Not high enough to call it a bullish breakout though. For the moment, hope looks toppy.