Analysts See Mortgage Slowdown, Rate Hikes Due to Lack of Capital
iFeng: 银行真没钱了 北京首套房贷已基准利率为主优惠绝迹
Hai Tong Securities macro bond analyst Jiang Chao believes that mortgage interest rates soared mainly because the “bank without rice pot.” According to the study, “in 2016, the bank can be in the financial markets through the same industry deposit at 2.8% interest rate, so the 4.9% loan interest rate, even if the mortgage interest rate hit 8 fold is also profitable to the first quarter of this year Interbank deposit rate rose to 4.5%, so the bank mortgage interest rates began to play 9 fold, 95 fold to make up for the cost rise. But in April and May after the bank’s interbank deposits are made, the banks themselves have no money, then how to issue mortgages?“
Jiang Chao believes that the rise in lending rates, loans to shrink, means that the impact of financial leverage will be transferred from the financial market to the real economy. “Credit contraction is the biggest risk in the second half of the year.” In the first half of 17 years, although the economy appears to see signs of falling, but only slow slowdown, because the financial leverage is only in the financial market, mainly for the currency and bond interest rates rise Commercial banks are still expanding, lending rates and loan payments remain stable, but with the shrinking distribution of interbank orders, which means that commercial banks began to shrink, lending rates rose sharply, and the payment of loans began to shrink, which means that The impact of financial deleveraging will be transferred from financial markets to the real economy, and credit contraction will be the biggest risk of the economy in the second half of the year.
A publicly traded bank insider told reporters that the bank mortgage interest rates rise, not only because of the national real estate macro-control factors, may be because “the banks really have no money.” “Banks are still more likely to lend to buyers because mortgages are among the lowest risk classes in bank loans, with low default rates and bad debts, which are fundamentally high quality assets.”
The above-mentioned joint-stock bankers believe that the situation of financial deleveraging, interbank deposit, outsourcing business are in recovery, plus the central bank MPA assessment, the major banks are tightening. “Mortgage rose the fastest, roughly the financial business and interbank deposit business done better bank.”