Merchant’s Bank Sees Violent Market Reaction to Deleveraging
Before the data was released, we had the following assumptions about the data for the next quarter:
1) Industrial growth will remain at a relatively high level. Unless the commodity prices continue to plummet, the industrial enterprises will still maintain relatively rapid production, which will lead to inventory is still picking up, and based on the production method of GDP data looks “not weak” (the chain will be slightly lower than the marginal, but phase Than other indicators should be acceptable);
2) Demand side of the investment will fall sharply. In the second quarter, the “deleveraging” behavior of financial institutions has actually occurred, and fixed asset investment will face the financing level (the growth rate of the source of funds will remain negative), the superimposed real estate investment may be “cold”, the second quarter fixed assets investment There is the possibility of over-expected fall;
3) currency credit and financing data “diving”. Exogenous and endogenous shocks led to “broad credit” in contraction, financial institutions to create a substantial decline in the ability to create money, the second quarter of monetary credit and financing data is likely to “dive”, compared to the first quarter, a single month new credit may ” Waist cut “, monetary growth may also move closer to single digits.
Historical experience shows that ignoring the “adjustment” signal issued by the capital market, often misled by the “good data” of the past, the inertia of the future data, we believe that the expectations have begun to deteriorate, the actual data in the marginal Adjustment is just beginning, which will strengthen the previous expectations, leading to more volatile asset prices.
Financial and real economy PK, no one can be immune. Do not simply think that the economy can continue to “carry”, that you can have “steady growth” at the same time with “deleveraging”, because the financial market is expected to adjust faster, the final real economy will have a violent reaction to deleveraging. We believe that in this PK, the bond market will probably be “accidentally injured.”