Small and Medium Bank Bankruptcies Possible

I had to pull up the cached version of this article because it no longer comes up on iFeng’s site. The headline reads: Dongbei Securities: Banking Industry in Crisis, These Banks Could Go Bankrupt. The full version is below in case the link stops working.
iFeng: 东北宏观:银行业危险了 这些银行将会破产
There is also a the same story at JRJ.com, currently working: 东北宏观:银行业危险了 这些银行将会破产

The report is an interview with Liu Chengran:

Shanghai Legal Information Financial Services Limited partner, vice president of Financial Supervision Research Institute. He has worked in the People’s Bank of China, the banking supervision system, has up to 15 years of experience in supervision, focusing on banking regulatory statistics and legal compliance research, participated in various types of bank good standards and regulatory statistical inspection more than 30 times.

Q1: What additional regulatory documents should we pay attention to during the year?

Liu: may introduce a series of regulatory documents, we believe that the core of the management of credit management methods, off-balance sheet business management regulations, financial management approach (guidance has been released first, this approach is already waiting for the introduction of new financial management in the same The new regulations on the floor to come out), the rest is the central bank to lead the management of the guidance, regulate the financial industry Document No. 127 will be revised version of the text. Promote the class of documents, one is the Trust Company Ordinance, one is the commercial bank bankruptcy regulations should pay attention.

Q2: Will banks go bankrupt?

Liu: In the past we think that the probability of bankruptcy is small, but the deposit insurance after three years of efforts, allowing small banks to bankruptcy (the largest risk is agricultural banks), the possible outbreak of regional financial risks, do not rule out this phenomenon. The next three to five years the probability of bankruptcy of commercial banks is very large, in fact, there are already micro-bankruptcy, such as the use of absorption merger.

Discussing why WMP have such high yields, but shouldn’t, Liu says it is a risk and maturity mismatch:

If there is no active management of the bank capacity, it will not have a high yield, so theoretically financial management should not have a high yield. But why is there now? Because the docking non-standard, which became a financial deposit, become just against, because the bank to eat poor, do not want to give excess returns, it is not the same as the public offering of funds as the nature of the commission. But the docking of non-standard will be mismatched, including the mismatch of the period, the risk of mismatch, and the bank on the “off-balance sheet” did not mention the risk of provision, that is, the ability to take risks.

Q4: 30 trillion in WMP will go where? Just do not grow or shrink? Will it be old and new? What kind of model will the future WMP use?

Liu: WMPs will shrink. Old and new cut is there, but will give the rectification period, not always indefinitely old and new cut off, but it will not suddenly back, otherwise the capital gap is difficult to make up, will slowly back to the table, such as matured do not renew, and then slowly back, so be sure to shrink.

The future of bank finance is likely to fund, such as the formation of financial subsidiaries in the form of strict information disclosure, to net worth, the buyer at their own risk.

Q6: Does the central bank and the CBRC agree? Before the 19th NPC Why do not you want to do so before dragging it? Is there a target for deleveraging?

Liu: now do not check will lead to 19th after the more unstable, because it can not drag down. There is no quantitative indicators, now is the risk of exposure, lack of capital to supplement the capital. The central bank’s perspective is to ensure that every quarter end there is not a big liquidity risk, the central bank will not consider bond risk too much. Now is to do stress tests, the banking system can return to the loan.

And the final question:

Q7: Which banks are relatively more dangerous and more safe?

Liu: state-owned big line is relatively more secure, because the operation has been relatively stable, the business is relatively more standardized, and large but not down. In addition, the big banks have begun to clean up and rectify, especially the underlying assets of the screening. Small and medium-sized banks, especially the risk of agricultural firms, do not rule out the phenomenon of individual bankruptcy.

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来源:东北宏观

刘诚燃:上海法询金融信息服务有限公司合伙人、金融监管研究院副院长。曾先后就职于人民银行、银监系统,有长达15年监管工作经验,专注于银行业监管统计和法律合规研究,参加过各类银行良好标准和监管统计检查30余次。

Q1:年内将需要关注哪些进一步的监管文件落地?

刘专家:可能出台一系列监管文件,我们认为核心的有委贷管理办法、表外业务管理规定、理财管理办法(指导意见已经先行发布,这个办法已经就是等待出台,理财新规就在等资管新规落地就出来),剩下的是央行牵头的资管指导意见,规范金融同业业务的127号文将有修订版本。推进类的文件,一个是信托公司条例,一个是商业银行破产处置条例要注意。

Q2:会搞出银行破产出来吗?

刘专家:以前大家觉得破产概率小,但存款保险经过了三年努力,可以允许区域性小银行先破产(农商行风险最大),可能爆发区域性金融风险,不排除这种现象。未来3-5年商业银行破产概率很大,其实现在已经有微破产,比如用吸收合并的方式。

Q3:理财监管目标是什么?为什么要动理财的刀子?

刘专家:这个问题应该反过来答。银行如果没有主动管理能力,那不会有高收益率,所以理论上理财不应该有高收益率。但是为什么现在有?因为对接非标,这就变成了理财存款化,变成刚兑,因为银行吃利差、不愿意给超额收益,那其实不是像公募基金一样的委托理财性质。但是对接非标就会出现错配问题,包括期限错配、风险错配,而银行对“表外存贷”并没有计提风险拨备,也即没有能力承担风险。

理财的监管目标主要两个,首先肯定是打破刚兑,其次是严控资金池(开放式理财产品会出现问题)。

Q4:30万亿的理财规模将走向何方?只是不增长还是收缩?会不会新老划断?理财未来采用什么样的模式?

刘专家:理财会收缩。新老划断是有的,但是会给整改期,不会一直无限期新老划断,但也不会一下子回表,否则资本缺口巨大难以弥补,会慢慢回表,比如到期不续。新业务已经不做,再慢慢回表,所以肯定要收缩。

未来的银行理财很可能基金化,比如成立理财子公司的形式,要严格信息披露、要净值化,买者自负。

Q5:委外赎回逻辑怎么理解?为什么要赎回流动性好的委外?委外是合规的。

刘专家:从赎回发生的银行来看,反而是大银行而不是问题更大的中小银行,从这点上看,我们怀疑现在的大量委外赎回的直接因素不是监管风暴,而是MPA考核。为什么一季度的MPA考核现在有影响?一些大行银行考核可能不达标,没达到B档,因为考核数据4月15日左右出台,之前银行觉得就算是C档没事,现在不认为了,提前赎回委外满足下季度MPA考核要求。5、6月份可能还有股份银行、城商行去委外的节奏。

Q6:央行和银监会态度一致吗?19大前为什么要这么做不能拖一拖吗?去杠杆有量化的指标吗?

刘专家:现在不查会导致19大后更不稳定,因为没法再拖下去了。没有量化的指标,现在就是暴露风险,资本不足的要补充资本。央行角度是保证每个季末不出流动性大风险,债券风险央行不会过多考虑。现在就是在做压力测试,银行体系可以回归放贷款。

Q7:哪些银行相对更危险,哪些更安全?

刘专家:国有大行相对更安全,因为运行一直较为稳健、业务相对更规范,而且大而不倒。此外,大银行已经开始清理整顿,尤其底层资产的筛选上。中小银行尤其是农商行风险较大,不排除出现个别破产现象

Author: 罗臻 http://www.investinginchinesestocks.blogspot.com

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